Thursday 12 January 2012

Do uneducated vote conservative - in the USA?

My last post of the year was about the correlation between conservatism and education. I took the results per state of the US 2008 election, showing the margin percentage for Obama, and related that to total education spend per state

The outcome was astonishing: all but 3 states fit perfectly into the newly found rule. The odd ones out were Sarah Palin's state, Dick Cheney's state, and Louisiana. However, Pat McGuinness slapped me on the wrist 4 times in a row, assuming his ass off, calling me ignorant and prejudiced, and spreading dumb and unsupported rumours. So here's my answer.
The data in the table above is based on data from the National Center of Education Statistics and shows actual education level in 2006-8
Again, read from left to right, for example: Home-of-Dick-Cheney state Wyoming is least likely to vote Obama, hence should have lowest level of education, according to my hypothesis. Well, it doesn't: its actual level is 94% different from what you'd expect it to be. Same for Mormon state Utah: an 84% deviation there

First of all, thank you Pat for your lengthy comment. I safely assume you're a hardcore conservative - even though you claim to have a PhD (LOL). Second, here goes. I've taken your words but left out the capitals - they distract from the content

  1. Spending on education is not educational result - Correct, it isn't. With regards to Pat's comment: Washington DC actually has the lowest education level in the country (see the second column) - but maybe that's because these figures are from 2006-8, when the Bush administration was still in charge? Just joking - well not really LOL. Okay, seriously now
  2. Ranking by education result will show that actual educational results in the us have almost no correlation to state-level spending - well it's considerably less, but I certainly see some correlation. Maybe Pat and I should agree on the exact amount of standard deviation deemed tolerable?
    The average percentage is 28% now, whereas it was 19% for the education spend. That's half the correlation - not too bad, I think
  3. You've managed to prove that Obama voters live in places with a lot of Government spending - only if your government spends only on education. I'll just redirect to wikipedia here where you can see the US spends 3.5 trillion every year, 600 billion of which on education: 17% of US government spend is on education. Some say less than 50% of education spend "goes to the classroom"? Yet another fable - only 6% of education budget is spent on administration
  4. The more knowledgeable and educated voters in America lean Republican, with the exception of the post-graudate degree holders (aka academics) - apparently, there's a content-free post with one single, dead link that proves "Democrats draw mostly from those with little education and with a graduate degree, while Republicans draw from the middle". Three decades of data - on 40,000 people? Sure. I guess seeing is believing?
  5. Under President Bush, federal spending on education doubled. I guess he was a non-conservative - oh and now all of a sudden, education spend does count? Anyway, it's yet another fable. Here's showing that expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools rose 15% between 2000 and 2008, the George W. Bush administration period
  6. The educational attainment gap broken down by race in USA is significant - I have no idea what Pat means to say here, unless it's "blacks are dragging down white scores". Maybe Pat can comment on this in particular? I certainly can't
  7. You made a fundamental error in making a theocratic definition of conservatism - it's my definition of conservatism. Conservatives in general are people that live their lives in fear, and control others by fear. They wield the tools of exclusion, you're either with them or their mortal enemy that must be destroyed, and segregation based on religion, country and territory is how they divide their good from their bad.
    Typically, conservatives are haters, not lovers. When they say they love you, they mean they want to control you and correct your errors, make you perfect - their definition of perfect, of course

In 1988, I was a senior in Highschool and graduated. The level of education was appaling, and I doubt it's much better now. American friends tell me it isn't.
However the current state, I wrote the first post to prove a theory: if conservatives / Republicans get their votes from significantly undereducated people, that would hand them a clear business case to destroy the institution of Education.
Needless to say, if the opposite were proven, it would give liberals / Democrats an identically solid business case

Have I proven my point? In my first post, most certainly. In this one, less so. However, the splendid wikipedia handed me a great article, that shows Republicans have been trying to abolish the entire Department of Education over the last three decades, under the pretext of the 10th Amendment

Now, if you really believe that's the real reason behind it, you must be stupid - or vote conservative?

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